Fisher Memorial Trust


Window at Gonville & Caius College Cambridge

(Photograph by Denise Till)

The Fisher Memorial Trust was set up to promote interest in the life and work of the great statistician, evolutionary biologist and geneticist, Sir Ronald Aylmer Fisher (1890-1962) and to maintain his scientific legacy by encouraging discussion of the scientific fields in which he was active.

Charity Commission charity number 313536

Committee members

Society Representative Position
Biometric Society Prof Rosemary Bailey
Biometric Society Prof Vern Farewell***
Biometric Society Mr Andrew Mead *
Genetics Society Prof Brian Charlesworth, FRS
Genetics Society Prof Adam Eyre-Walker Treasurer
Royal Society Sir Walter Bodmer, FRSChairman
Royal Statistical Society Prof Peter Diggle **
Royal Statistical Society Prof Stephen SennSecretary
* Replaced Prof John Gower 1 February 2015 ** Replaced Sir David Cox 1 February 2015 *** Replaced Prof Mike Kenward 1 February 2016

Annual report for 2015

Annual report

The Fisher Memorial Lectures

IDr. F. Yates 23.3.66 Computers, the second revolution in statistics.
IIDr. R. R. Race6.3.68Blood groups in human genetics
IIIProf. E. A. Cornish3.9.69Developments from the Fisher-Cornish expansions.
IVProf. K. Mather18.12.70Biometrical genetics.
VProf. G. A. Barnard19.9.72Statistical inference and its historical development
VIProf. L. L. Cavalli-Sforza24.6.74Cultural versus biological evolution
VIIProf. R. Hide17.11.77Motions in planetry fluids
VIIIProf. D. J. Finney20.9.78Bioassay and the practice of statistical inference
IXProf. J. Maynard Smith19.3.81The evolution of the sex ratio
XProf. J. H. Bennett3.6.81R. A. Fisher and The Genetical Theory of Natural Selection
XIProf. S. Karlin20.4.83Kin selection and altruism
XIIProf. D. R. Cox5.4.84Regression and the design of experiments
XIIIProf. S. M. Stigler22.9.86Francis Galton and the unravelling of the normal world
XIVProf. G. E. Box23.3.88Quality improvement, an expanding domain for the application of scientific method
XVSir Walter Bodmer23.3.90Genetic sequences
XVIProf. D. Lindley17.9.92Statistics of the market place
XVIIProf. A. J. Jeffereys16.8.93Molecular sleuthing: the story of genetic fingerprinting
XVIIIDr. A. W. F. Edwards20.10.94Fiducial inference and the fundamental theorem of natural selection
XIXProf. M. J. R. Healy3.4.95The life and work of Frank Yates
XXProf. J. A. Nelder5.9.96Computers and statistics: the continuing revolution.
XXISir John Kingman16.11.98Mathematics of genetic diversity: before and after DNA.
XXIIProf. B Efron12.9.00The essential Fisher
XXIIISir Richard Doll29.10.01Proof of causality: Deductions from epidemiological evidence
XXIVDr. Oliver Mayo26.06.02The realisation of Fisher's research programme
XXVProf. Warren Ewens7.04.03Statistics and the transformation from genetics to genomics
XXVIProf. Adrian Smith8.09.04Towards an Evidence-Based Society: the Role of Statistical Thinking
XXVIIProf. E.A.Thompson4.12.061953: an unrecognized summit in Human Genetic Linkage Analysis
XXVIIIProf. R.A. Bailey15.07.08Design of dose-escalation trials
XXIX Prof B Charlesworth and
Prof D Charlesworth
6.01.10Fisher and Modern Evolutionary Genetics
XXXProf Philip Dawid10.11.11Causal inference from experimental data
XXXIProf Peter Donnelly14.11.12Genetic Variation in Human Health and Disease
XXXIIProf David Spiegelhalter3.07.13Putting life into numbers: the highs and lows of communicating statistics to the public
XXXIIIProf Bill Hill8.01.14Applying quantitative genetic and genomic information to animal improvement
XXXIVProf Peter McCullagh27.10.15Empirical phenomena and universal laws
XXXVProf Nancy Reid27.10.16Statistical science and data science: where do we go from here?
XXXVIProf Stephen Senn04.09.17And thereby hangs a tail: the strange history of P-values






The 36th Fisher Memorial Lecture

The 36th Fisher Memorial Lecture was given at the Royal Statistical Society Annual Conference in Glasgow on Monday, 4 September 2017


Title: And thereby hangs a tail: the strange history of P-values

Stephen Senn, Luxembourg Institute of Health
RA Fisher is usually given the honour and now (increasingly) the shame of having invented P-values. A common theme of criticism is that P-values give significance too easily and that their cult is responsible for a replication crisis enveloping science.

However, tail area probabilities were calculated long before Fisher and naively and commonly given an inverse interpretation. It was Fisher who pointed out that this interpretation was unsafe and who stressed an alternative and more conservative one, although this can be found in earlier writings such as those of Karl Pearson.

I shall consider the history of P-values and inverse probability from Bayes to Fisher, passing by Laplace, Pearson, Student, Broad and Jeffreys, and show that the problem is not so much an incompatibility of frequentist and Bayesian inference, as an incompatibility of two approaches to dealing with null hypotheses. Both these approaches are encountered in Bayesian analyses, with the older of the two much more common. They lead to very different inferences in the Bayesian framework but less so in the frequentist one. I conclude that the real problem is that there is an unresolved difference of practice in Bayesian approaches. This does not, of itself, constitute a defence of P-values but it does suggest that some of the problems for which they are blamed will not be resolved merely by abandoning them.

Rosemary Bailey (chairing) and Stephen Senn (the 36th Fisher Memorial lecturer)







Next lecture

The 37th Fisher Memorial Lecture will be given by video link by Professor Joe Felsenstein as part of the 50th annual meeting of the Population Genetics Group in Bristol on Thursday 4 January 2018. The lecture will be streamed and details will be provided when available.

Title: Is there a more fundamental theorem of natural selection?

Abstract R.A. Fisher's Fundamental Theorem of Natural Selection has intrigued evolutionary biologists, who wondered whether it could be the basis of a general maximum principle for mean fitness of the population. Subsequent work by Warren Ewens, Anthony Edwards, and George Price showed that a reasonable version of the FTNS is true, but only if the quantity being increased by natural selection is not the mean fitness of the population but a more indirectly defined quantity. That leaves us in an unsatisfactory state. In spite of Fisher's assertion that the theorem "hold[s] the supreme position among the biological sciences", the Fundamental Theorem is, alas, not-so-fundamental. There is also the problem that the additive genetic variances involved do not change in an easily predictable way. Neverthless, the FTNS is an early, and imaginative, attempt at formulating macro-scale laws from population-genetic principles. I will not attempt to revive the FTNS, but instead am trying to extend a 1978 model of mine, put forth in what may be my least-cited paper. This attempts to make a "toy" model of an evolving population in which we can bookkeep energy flows through an evolving population, and derive a long-term prediction for change of the energy content of the system. It may be possible to connect these predictions to the rate of increase of the adaptive information (the "specified information") embodied in the genetic information in the organisms. The models are somewhat absurdbly oversimple, but I argue that models like this at least can give us some results, which decades of more handwavy papers on the general connection between evolution, entropy, and information have not

Links


The RA Fisher Digital Archive University of Adelaide

Figures from the history of statistics Site maintained by John Aldrich

A Guide to R.A. Fisher Specific Fisher guide maintained by John Aldrich

Sir Ronald Aylmer Fisher MacTutor History of Mathematics Biography

Ronald Aylmer Fisher Monash University Fisher pages

COPSS Awards Committee of Presidents of Statistical Societies Awards (including Fisher lecture)

Committee of Presidents of Statistical Societies list of Fisher lecturers History of the COPSS Awards

Chance, risk and healthOpen University series of 4 podcasts on RA Fisher and his legacy

Page of quotations from the works of Fisher collected by Anthony Edwards

Fisher memorabilia

The committee are interested to establish an index of Fisher memorabilia. If anybody has knowledge of the whereabouts of any Fisher memorabilia or is interested in learning of their whereabouts, please contact the secretary Stephen Senn stephen@senns.demon.co.uk or any member of the committee.

This page last updated 10 Dec 2017

Page maintained by Stephen Senn stephen@senns.demon.co.uk